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Êðàñíîäàð

2011 ãîä

Íàó÷íî-êîíñóëüòàòèâíûé öåíòð “Ñîçíàíèå”

È.ß. ÍÎÂÈÖÊÈÉ

ÓÏÐÀÂËÅÍÈÅ ÝÒÍÎÏÎËÈÒÈÊÎÉ

ÑÅÂÅÐÍÎÃÎ ÊÀÂÊÀÇÀ

(Ñöåíàðèè ðàñïàäà è ñîõðàíåíèÿ òåððèòîðèàëüíî-

ïñèõîëîãè÷åñêîé öåëîñòíîñòè Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè

ïî Ñåâåðîêàâêàçñêîé ÷åðòå)

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ÁÁÊ 66.5 (2ÐÎÑ)
ÓÄÊ 323.1 (470.6)

©  Íîâèöêèé È.ß. 2011

 © Îôîðìëåíèå. Èçäàòåëüñòâî “Çäðàâñòâóéòå” 2011

ÁÁÊ 66.5 (2ÐÎÑ)                                         

 ISBN 978-5-94945-030-7

ÓÄÊ 323.1 (470.6)

Êðàñíîäàð, “Çäðàâñòâóéòå”, 2011, ñòð.270

Ðåöåíçåíòû:

Ëå÷èåâ Ìàêñèì Õàìèäîâè÷

 – çàâåäóþùèé êàôåäðîé ãðàæäàíñêî-ïðàâîâûõ äèñöèïëèí,

êàíäèäàò þðèäè÷åñêèõ íàóê , çàñëóæåííûé þðèñò,  Ôåäåðàëüíûé ñóäüÿ Âûñøåãî Àðáèòðàæíîãî
ñóäà ÐÔ â îòñòàâêå

×è÷óê Åëåíà Þðüåâíà

 – äîöåíò êàôåäðà ïñèõîëîãèè ëè÷íîñòè è îáùåé ïñèõîëîãèè,

êàíäèäàò ïñèõîëîãè÷åñêèõ íàóê

ISBN 978-5-94945-030-7

 ìîíîãðàôèè äàåòñÿ øèðîêàÿ èíôîðìàöèÿ î ôàêòîðàõ, âëèÿþùèõ íà îáùóþ

ýòíîïîëèòè÷åñêóþ ñèòóàöèþ íà Ñåâåðíîì Êàâêàçå. Îïèñàíû êîíñòðóêòèâíûé è
äåêîíñòðóêòèâíûé ñöåíàðèè, ïîçâîëÿþùèå ñòðîèòü ïðîãíîçû íà áëèæàéøèå 10 -15 ëåò.
Ìîíîãðàôèÿ âíîñèò âêëàä â ïîçíàíèå ýòíîïîëèòèêè, ïîä÷åðêèâàåò îãðîìíîå çíà÷åíèå ðåëèãèè,
åå ðîëü â ñîöèàëüíîé èíæåíåðèè.

Èíôîðìàòèâíàÿ öåííîñòü êíèãè âîçðàñòàåò áëàãîäàðÿ ðàññìîòðåíèþ Ñåâåðíîãî Êàâêàçà ñ

ðàçíûõ ïîçèöèé.

Êíèãà ðàññ÷èòàíà íà êàâêàçîâåäîâ, ïîëèòîëîãîâ, ýòíîëîãîâ, ñîöèàëüíûõ ïñèõîëîãîâ-

èíæåíåðîâ, ðåëèãèîâåäîâ.

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ÎÃËÀÂËÅÍÈÅ

ÂÂÅÄÅÍÈÅ...................................................................................................................................6

ÃËÀÂÀ I. ÎÁÇÎÐ ÎÑÍÎÂÍÛÕ ÔÀÊÒÎÐÎÂ, ÂËÈßÞÙÈÕ ÍÀ ÑÈÒÓÀÖÈÞ ÍÀ

ÑÅÂÅÐÍÎÌ ÊÀÂÊÀÇÅ....................................................................................................................8

§ 1. ÎÁÙÈÅ ÝÒÍÎÄÅÌÎÃÐÀÔÈ×ÅÑÊÈÅ ÏÐÎÖÅÑÑÛ.........................................................9
1.1. ×èñëåííîñòü ýòíîñîâ............................................................................................................9
1.2. Ìèãðàöèÿ íàðîäîâ..............................................................................................................15
1.3. Îáðàçîâàíèå äèàñïîð.........................................................................................................17
§ 2. ÝÒÍÎÏÎËÈÒÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÔÀÊÒÎÐ....................................................................................21
2.1. Îáùàÿ ýòíîïîëèòè÷åñêàÿ ñèòóàöèÿ...................................................................................22
2.2. Íàöèîíàëüíûå îðãàíèçàöèè..............................................................................................24
2.3. Êîíôëèêò «ïðàâî íàöèé íà ñàìîîïðåäåëåíèå» è «ñîõðàíåíèå   òåððèòîðèàëüíîé

öåëîñòíîñòè ãîñóäàðñòâà»..............................................................................................................26

2.4. Ïðåèìóùåñòâà è óÿçâèìîñòü ðîññèéñêîãî ôåäåðàëèçìà..................................................30
§ 3. ÊÓËÜÒÓÐÎËÎÃÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÔÀÊÒÎÐ................................................................................33
3.1. Èñòîðèÿ ðàçâèòèÿ ðóññêî-êàâêàçñêîé êóëüòóðû è ñâåòñêîãî îáðàçîâàíèÿ......................33
3.2. Ñåãîäíÿøíåå ñâåòñêîå îáðàçîâàíèå..................................................................................36
3.3. Ðàñõîæäåíèå ðóññêîé è êàâêàçñêîé êóëüòóðû....................................................................37
3.4. Îòíîøåíèå ê ôèíàíñîâîìó áëàãîïîëó÷èþ........................................................................40
3.5. Ðîëü ÿçûêà............................................................................................................................42
§ 4. ÐÅËÈÃÈÎÇÍÛÉ ÔÀÊÒÎÐ.................................................................................................43
4.1. Èñëàìèçàöèÿ ÑÊ.................................................................................................................45
4.2. Ðåëèãèîçíîå âîçðîæäåíèå - êàê ÿâëåíèå äåìîäåðíèçàöèè..............................................49
4.3. Ðåëèãèÿ è äåìîêðàòèÿ íà ÑÊ.............................................................................................51
4.4. Ðåëèãèÿ è ðîññèéñêàÿ àðìèÿ..............................................................................................52
4.5. Ðàäèêàëèçàöèÿ èñëàìà........................................................................................................55
4.6. Ìåæäóíàðîäíûå èñëàìñêèå îðãàíèçàöèè........................................................................61
4.7. Âëèÿíèå Ðóññêîé Ïðàâîñëàâíîé Öåðêâè íà ïðîòåñòíîñòü ÑÊ.......................................62
§ 5.  ÝÒÍÎÏÑÈÕÎËÎÃÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÔÀÊÒÎÐ..........................................................................63
5.1. Îáùèå ïñèõîëîãè÷åñêèå ÷åðòû..........................................................................................63
5.2. Ãåíäåðíûå îñîáåííîñòè â òðàäèöèîííîì êàâêàçñêîì îáùåñòâå.....................................67
5.3. Èäåíòè÷íîñòè ëè÷íîñòè è èõ çíà÷èìîñòü â êîíôëèêòàõ.................................................69
5.4. Âíóòðèêàâêàçñêèå îòíîøåíèÿ............................................................................................73
5.5. ßâëåíèå ñòåðèîòèïèçàöèè â ïñèõîëîãèè êîíôëèêòà......................................................75
5.6. Ýòíîêëàíîâîñòü...................................................................................................................77
§ 6. ÊÎÍÔËÈÊÒÎÃÅÍÍÛÉ ÔÀÊÒÎÐ.....................................................................................78
6.1. Îáùàÿ õàðàêòåðèñòèêà êîíôëèêòíîé êàðòèíû.................................................................78
6.2. Êëàññèôèêàöèÿ êîíôëèêòîâ...............................................................................................80
6.3. Ìèêðîóðîâåíü - ëîêàëüíûå êîíôëèêòû.............................................................................81
6.3.1. Âíóòðèíàöèîíàëüíûå êîíôëèêòû.....................................................................................81
Ìåæòåéïîâûå ïðîòèâîðå÷èÿ.....................................................................................................81
Ìåæêîíôåññèîíàëüíûé (âíóòðèíàöèîíàëüíûé) êîíôëèêò...................................................83
Âíóòðèêîíôåññèîíàëüíûå (âíåýòíè÷åñêèå) êîíôëèêòû.........................................................84
6.3.2. Ìåæíàöèîíàëüíûå êîíôëèêòû.......................................................................................89
Âíåðåñïóáëèêàíñêèå êîíôëèêòû..............................................................................................89
Âíóòðèðåñïóáëèêàíñêèå êîíôëèêòû..........................................................................................91
6.4.Ñðåäíèé óðîâåíü - ìåæðåñïóáëèêàíñêèå êîíôëèêòû.......................................................98
6.4.1. Ñåâåðíàÿ Îñåòèÿ – Èíãóøåòèÿ..........................................................................................99
6.4.2. ×å÷íÿ – Äàãåñòàí..............................................................................................................108

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6.5. Ìàêðîóðîâåíü - ãîñóäàðñòâåííûå êîíôëèêòû.................................................................109
6.5.1. Ìåæãîñóäàðñòâåííûå êîíôëèêòû.................................................................................109
6.5.2. Ñåïàðàöèîííûå êîíôëèêòû...........................................................................................113
§ 7.  ÔÈÍÀÍÑÎÂÎ-ÝÊÎÍÎÌÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÔÀÊÒÎÐ............................................................115
7.1. Íåôòÿíîé âîïðîñ.................................................................................................................117
7.2. Èñëàìñêèå áàíêè è ôîíäû................................................................................................118
7.3. Áåäíîñòü -  ïðè÷èíà ðàäèêàëèçàöèè èñëàìà?.................................................................121
7.4.  Äèíàìèêà ôèíàíñèðîâàíèÿ áàíäôîðìèðîâàíèé..........................................................121
§ 8. ÔÀÊÒÎÐ ÎËÈÌÏÈÀÄÛ 2014.........................................................................................122
8.1. Èñïîëüçîâàíèå Îëèìïèéñêèõ èãð...................................................................................123
8.2. Ýòíîñèòóàöèÿ â ã. Ñî÷è....................................................................................................124
8.3. Âîïðîñû «Îëèìïèàäà íà êðîâè», «Ãåíîöèä ÷åðêåññêîãî íàðîäà» è
«Âåëèêàÿ ×åðêåñèÿ»....................................................................................................................125

ÃËÀÂÀ II. ÄÅÑÒÐÓÊÒÈÂÍÛÉ ÑÖÅÍÀÐÈÉ: ÐÀÑÏÀÄ ÐÎÑÑÈÉÑÊÎÉ ÔÅÄÅÐÀÖÈÈ ÏÎ

ÑÅÂÅÐÎÊÀÂÊÀÇÑÊÎÉ ×ÅÐÒÅ..................................................................................................132

§ 1.  ÎÁÎÑÍÎÂÀÍÈÅ ÄÅÑÒÐÓÊÒÈÂÍÎÃÎ ÑÖÅÍÀÐÈß....................................................133
1.1. Îðãàíèçàòîðû äåñòðóêòèâíîãî ñöåíàðèÿ........................................................................133
1.2. Ïðåäïîñûëêè ðàñïàäà ÐÔ................................................................................................137
1.3. Ðåàëèçàöèÿ äåñòðóêòèâíîãî ñöåíàðèÿ.............................................................................139
§ 2.   ÏÎÄÃÎÒÎÂÈÒÅËÜÍÛÉ ÝÒÀÏ.....................................................................................140
2.1. Äèàãíîñòèêà ïðåäåñòðóêòèâíîé ñèòóàöèè......................................................................141
2.2. Ôîðìèðîâàíèå àíòàãîíèçìà ìåæäó ÑÊ è îñòàëüíîé Ðîññèåé.......................................141
2.3. Ïåðåîðèåíòèðîâêà âçãëÿäîâ ÑÊ íà ñòðàíû Çàïàäà è Áëèæíåãî Âîñòîêà......................144
2.4. «Óìèðîòâîðåíèå» îáùåêàâêàçñêîé ñèòóàöèè..................................................................147
2.5.  Øèðîêîìàñøòàáíîñòü äåñòðóêòèâíîãî ñöåíàðèÿ...........................................................149
2.6.  Ðàçâèòèå èíôîðìàöèîííîãî ôîíà..................................................................................155
2.7. Ïîäãîòîâêà äåéñòâóþùèõ ëèö..........................................................................................158
§ 3. ÎÏÅÐÀÖÈÎÍÍÛÉ ÝÒÀÏ..................................................................................................173
3.1. Îñíîâíûå ìåðîïðèÿòèÿ....................................................................................................173
3.1.1. Ñòðàòåãèÿ îïåðàöèè.......................................................................................................174
3.1.2. Êàìïàíèÿ ïî ñíÿòèþ ïðåçèäåíòà ðåñïóáëèêè.............................................................176
3.1.3. Ïîøàãîâûé ïðèìåð îñíîâíîé îïåðàöèè......................................................................177
3.2. Äîïîëíèòåëüíûå äåéñòâèÿ...............................................................................................179
3.2.1. Äèâåðñèîííî-ïàðòèçàíñêèå äåéñòâèÿ..........................................................................179
3.2.2. Ýñêàëàöèÿ ìåæíàöèîíàëüíûõ êîíôëèêòîâ..................................................................184
3.2.3. Âîåííûé ïåðåâîðîò........................................................................................................184
3.2.4. Ýëèòíûé ïåðåâîðîò........................................................................................................185
§ 4. ÑÎÖÈÀËÜÍÛÉ ÏÐÎÅÊÒ «ÁÓÄÓÙÅÅ ÐÎÑÑÈÈ ÏÐÈÍÀÄËÅÆÈÒ ÈÑËÀÌÓ»........185
4.1. Öåëü è çàäà÷è ïðîåêòà.......................................................................................................185
4.2. Ñïåöèôèêà ïðîåêòà...........................................................................................................187
4.3. Îïûò èñëàìèçàöèè Çàïàäà...............................................................................................188
4.4. Îñíîâíûå ôîðìû äà’âà.....................................................................................................192
4.5. Êîíöåïöèÿ îñîçíàííîãî ïåðåõîäà èç ïðàâîñëàâèÿ â èñëàì..........................................193
4.6. Ìîäåðíèçàöèÿ ðîññèéñêîãî èñëàìà.................................................................................200

ÃËÀÂÀ III. ÊÎÍÑÒÐÓÊÒÈÂÍÛÉ ÑÖÅÍÀÐÈÉ: ÑÎÕÐÀÍÅÍÈÅ ÒÅÐÐÈÒÎÐÈÀËÜÍÎ-

ÏÑÈÕÎËÎÃÈ×ÅÑÊÎÉ ÖÅËÎÑÒÍÎÑÒÈ ÐÎÑÑÈÉÑÊÎÉ ÔÅÄÅÐÀÖÈÈ ÍÀ ÑÅÂÅÐÍÎÌ
ÊÀÂÊÀÇÅ......................................................................................................................................201

§ 1.ÎÁÇÎÐ ÎÏÛÒÀ ÍÀÖÈÎÍÀËÜÍÛÕ ÏÎËÈÒÈÊ ÌÍÎÃÎÍÀÖÈÎÍÀËÜÍÛÕ

ÃÎÑÓÄÀÐÑÒÂ...............................................................................................................................201

1.1. Îïûò Ñîâåòñêîãî Ñîþçà..................................................................................................202