Файл: Na_puti_k_dolgosrochnoy_strategii_stran_BRIKS_angl.pdf

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In the past few decades the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and 

South Africa) have played a vital role in the world economy in terms of total 

production, investment capital destination and as potential consumer markets. 

BRICS economic growth and social inclusion policies have helped to stabilise the 

global economy, foster job creation, reduce poverty and combat inequality, thus 

contributing to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). 

The global economy has been showing signs of a recovery following the 

financial crisis. While it is likely that global gross domestic product (GDP) will 

increase, the pace of growth itself is uncertain. Additionally, the quality of growth 

is far from certain, with real economic data not showing significant improvement. 

Instead, the meagre growth achieved so far, especially in advanced economies, 

can be attributed to attempts at demand augmentation via a reduction in fiscal 

tightening as well as liquidity-boosting measures via extremely accommodative 

monetary policies.

Advanced economies’ central banks are struggling to mitigate deflationary 

trends and have not yet been able to commit to a definite timeline on withdrawing  

liquidity support. Although the active monetary policies have mitigated the  

immediate adverse effects of the crisis, and have had a positive impact on unem-

ployment, they have not had a commensurate effect on investment growth. All of 

this points to a danger of secular stagnation – a permanently lower trend of growth. 

With this prospect, the BRICS countries should come up with proactive 

policies that reinvigorate their domestic economies, establish stronger economic 

relationships among themselves and influence the international scenario. This will 

also help them to reduce to some extent their excessive dependence on exports to 

markets in developed countries.

In view of this situation and aiming at making suggestions for joint BRICS 

initiatives from a long-term perspective, the BRICS Think Tank Council (BTTC) 

has focused on five dimensions, namely: the promotion of cooperation for economic 

growth and development; the maintenance of peace and security; social justice, 

sustainable development and quality of life; political and economic governance; and 

achieving progress by sharing knowledge and innovation. This document presents 

the BTTC appraisal of the overall scenario with regard to these dimensions, indicates  

some challenges and proposes a set of recommendations to deal with them.

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In terms of economic cooperation and growth, BRICS countries should 

fully participate in the formulation of international financial standards and rules, 

make the best use of international financial reforming achievements and implement 

international standards to achieve internal reforms and to improve their own robust 

financial standards.

To be able to achieve these goals, BRICS countries consider two conditions 

fundamental: reform of the governance of multilateral institutions, and the 

establishment of international peace and security.

BRICS countries shall continue their efforts to promote changes in the  

voting rights at the IMF and the World Bank. They must also insist on the reform 

of the United Nations, including the Security Council. These measures are needed 

to reflect the new economic power of emerging economies.

In parallel to these adjustments in the economic realm, the aim of BRICS is to 

create a better and safer world order through peaceful diplomacy and multilateralism.  

Peace and stability can be achieved through cooperation and collaboration around 

existing national, regional and international peace and security initiatives, and by 

developing new strategies and mechanisms to ensure a secure future, as the UN 

Charter suggests. 

Despite all the efforts made by the international community, it has not 

yet succeeded in elaborating an adequate strategy to oppose local and regional 

threats, as a number of recent events demonstrate. For example, a number of new 

elements add up to affect security. Emerging types of offensive weapons pose a 

danger to global stability; they are not covered by any particular treaty, they may 

disrupt the established balance of power, and their usage could lead to conflict. 

Furthermore, terrorism is condemned in all its forms and manifestations. All five 

BRICS countries express grave concerns over the fact that terrorists increasingly 

use globalisation processes to promote their cause and inflict greater damage on 

peoples of the world.

Another example is the drug problem, which has evolved into a truly global 

phenomenon, with transnational drug crime becoming one of the leading illegal 

activities in the world.

It should also be added that the BRICS countries remain under-represented 

in the field of global internet and cyber governance. BRICS should, therefore, 

increase the common areas of cooperation to deal with these issues in accordance 

with their agreed principles.

From their national perspective, while the BRICS countries have managed 

to sustain considerable economic growth over the past decades, they continue to 

face significant challenges in ensuring social and economic justice at national and 

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regional levels. The presence of high rates of inequality is a common challenge faced 

by all BRICS countries. Like many emerging markets and developing countries, 

they continue to experience high levels of poverty, inequality and unemployment 

that undermine the rights of citizens to social justice and a better quality of life. 

The BRICS countries have decided to expand their focus to social development 

issues. A key step is the formal commitment to strengthen their cooperation in 

education. The MDGs have only partially been achieved.

The goal of universal health coverage among BRICS countries aims to ensure 

that citizens have health coverage in a publicly financed health system. Different 

situations are found in the BRICS countries, and cooperation and sharing experi-

ence certainly contribute to achieving such goals. Health coverage is also affected 

by the pace of immigration. 

Migration is an increasingly important issue for all BRICS countries, indicating 

the existence of a number of common problems and policy goals. High rates of 

population growth and urbanisation – which also include migration – have not 

only affected the provision of public services such as health and education but also 

mean that the provision of affordable housing is a growing problem. 

Furthermore, as emerging economies with large populations, land masses 

and disparities among their people, the BRICS countries stand to be significantly 

impacted by climate change. Their particular vulnerability thus requires them to 

actively participate in the negotiations and planning underway within their regions 

and internationally to promote sustainable development.

One basic condition for BRICS to assure sustainable development is to  

improve competitiveness. This can be achieved through a number of specific  

initiatives. One of the most important is to provide the conditions for these 

economies to catch up with developed countries in terms of technical progress.

There is a consensus that scientific and technological developments are 

positively associated with growing productivity. The question remains as to how 

to improve in this area. Countries that excel in technology have efficient National 

Innovation Systems (NISs). These systems represent a set of institutions involved 

in the creation of science, technology and innovation – notably government, 

universities and research institutes, and private companies – and the knowledge 

that flows between them. In a mature NIS, there is a smooth flow of knowledge, 

with highly innovative firms – competitive in global markets – generating 

technologies in their own research laboratories or in partnership with universities 

and research institutions. 

BRICS countries have improved their performance in science, technology 

and innovation (STI) indicators but still lag far behind when compared to more 

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developed countries. To catch up in terms of governance, a number of issues have 

to be addressed. BRICS countries have large populations and territories, complex 

government structures and different levels of government. This, of course, makes 

the coordination of STI policies very difficult. It is also hard to coordinate STI 

policies with other public policies. However, joint initiatives such as the exchange 

of technology and researchers among BRICS and sharing information about  

specific experiences are likely to be very helpful in creating favourable conditions 

for overcoming these difficulties.

These goals, of course, impose on BRICS a number of challenges.
For instance, excess liquidity spill-overs stemming from the advanced countries’ 

monetary policies lead to cross-border banking flows, exchange rate volatility, and 

overvalued assets in capital-receiving countries. Also, the “rebalancing” of the 

global economy may lead to slow growth in total global demand and restrict the 

development space for BRICS.

Furthermore, the rise of trade protectionism and increasingly complex issues 

faced by foreign investment might affect global resource allocation.

As the BRICS countries assume a pivotal role in the global governance 

architecture, they have to strive to affect structural changes within existing 

multilateral institutions, to promote effective governance, inclusiveness and 

transparency. They must be propositional and share relevant governance experiences 

with each other to further this central objective.

To be effective, it is imperative for BRICS to articulate a collective voice on 

issues of global importance. BRICS must take a leadership role in matters of global 

political and economic governance, by voicing not just their collective concerns 

but also representing the concerns of other emerging and developing countries.

Emerging and developing economies can coordinate and effectively use the 

international financial architecture to address common concerns. For instance, 

although the capital structure and voting rights have been amended at both the 

World Bank and the IMF, voting power is still skewed towards advanced economies. 

The Group of 20 (G20) can be a particularly useful platform for dealing with this 

situation, as well as for mobilising civil society to increase the pressure for reforms.

Indeed, BRICS has recently created the first non-regional post-Bretton 

Woods multilateral institution, the New Development Bank (NDB), to tackle 

certain challenges. 

Infrastructure financing still remains a significant obstacle to the development 

of many emerging and developing economies and is a clear priority for the members 

of BRICS. But it is also clear that the NDB’s sustainable-development-linked 

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financing mandate should focus on reducing inequality, improving inclusion and 

enhancing social and human development. The NDB could follow a demand-driven 

approach to financing which would place the onus of identification of viable 

projects for financing on recipient governments. 

On the social side, BRICS countries are encountering a long-term brain 

drain – through educational emigration and the direct outflow of qualified 

professionals – leading to both a significant loss of highly qualified professionals 

and financial losses derived from the cost of their education in the home countries 

of migrants. Conditions should be created to reverse this trend.

Access to social protection services is a challenge for all BRICS countries 

due to the physical size of the countries and their populations. Ensuring universal 

access to social protection requires vast logistical operations for those living in 

remote areas. Other challenges include banking facilities used as a condition for 

accessing benefits.

Moreover, encouraging and sustaining effective urban planning and municipal 

governance are essential and have proved to be a challenge across BRICS. 

Insufficient funding for infrastructure programmes such as housing and the 

provision of services such as sanitation and water may challenge sustainability. 

Prioritisation is, therefore, essential.

The move to adopt cleaner energy sources must be encouraged, for its effects 

not only on the population’s access to energy but also for its sustainability and 

consequent impact on production processes. 

BRICS countries have complex innovation systems, involving numerous 

institutions, laws, regional levels, policies and programmes. It is a complex task 

to integrate and coordinate all these dimensions, but it is essential that this 

integration happens; otherwise a lot of time and human and financial resources 

may be wasted.

BRICS countries have experienced – to different degrees – impressive improve-

ments in their STI indicators. However, overall innovation activity by enterprises 

is low compared to developed countries. There is a dilemma of how to seek insertion 

in a globalised market while capturing a significant share of the value added. 

In addition to the above-mentioned issues, the current military-political 

situation near some of the BRICS countries’ borders is fraught with large-scale 

armed conflicts that directly endanger their security. BRICS should deal with these 

security problems predominantly by using political and diplomatic measures, as 

provided by the UN Charter. Member States should take note of initiatives on 

the non-weaponization of outer space and welcome wide discussion of the topic.