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Promoting Cooperation for Economic Growth and Development
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19
China
From 1978 onward, China gradually privatised agriculture and opened up
to foreign investment and technology, thus speeding up its state-controlled
economic transition towards a market economy, in particular since 1992. Driven
by industrialisation goals, China has consistently channelled resources from the
rural subsistence sector into industrial activities of higher productivity.
South Africa
South Africa has experienced difficulty in diversifying away from its emphasis on
the development of natural resources. The fastest-growing sector of the economy has
been the financial service industry, followed by the wholesale and retail sectors, with
relatively little investment taking place in labour-absorbing manufacturing sectors.
1.3 BRICS in the global economy
The BRICS countries’ role as an engine of new consumption-driven growth may
shift more dramatically and quickly than many analysts expect. Sustainable growth
is the common theme that makes them a powerful and prominent force in the
global economy. The BRICS economies jointly accounted for 8 per cent of global
GDP in 2000; they are forecast to reach almost one quarter (24 per cent) of the
world economy by 2019 (IMF, 2014). A Goldman Sachs (2003) paper predicts
that the BRICS economies, which overtook Japan’s GDP in 2005, will surpass the
United States by 2015 and the G6 by 2040.
TABLE 2
BRICS GDP in the global economy (2000-2019)
(In % of the world total at current price in US$)
2000
2010
2013
2014
2019
1
BRICS
8
18
22
22
24
Other emerging market economies
12
16
17
16
17
United States
31
23
23
23
22
Euro area
19
19
17
17
17
Source: IMF (2014).
Note:
1
World Economic Outlook projections for 2019.
BRICS Long-Term Strategy
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TABLE 3
GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP) ranks
1990
2000
2010
2013
1
United States
United States
United States
United States
2
Japan
China
China
China
3
Germany
Japan
India
India
4
France
Germany
Japan
Japan
5
China
India
Germany
Germany
6
Italy
France
Russia
Russia
7
India
Italy
Brazil
Brazil
8
Brazil
Russia
France
France
9
United Kingdom
Brazil
United Kingdom
Indonesia
10
Mexico
United Kingdom
Italy
United Kingdom
Source:
IMF (2014).
These five countries participate in the international market in quite different
ways. Manufactured goods account for 94.0 per cent of total exports from China, in
contrast to 59.4 per cent from India and 42.0 per cent from South Africa. Exports
of manufactured goods by Brazil and Russia account for 35.1 per cent and 19.3
per cent, respectively, of their total exports. Russia’s export basket is dominated
by fuel and mineral exports (nearly 71.4 per cent), while agricultural products,
fuel and mining products account for nearly 61.6 per cent of exports in Brazil.
The demand for South Africa’s manufactured goods (nearly 42.0 per cent of total
exports) has boosted the country’s exports and subsequently contributed greatly
to economic growth (see table 4).
Technological developments across sectors in the BRICS economies are more
visible over the past two decades, and may also be responsible for the changes in
the composition of BRICS exports. The share of high-technology goods in the
export baskets clearly indicates an upward trend.
A large percentage of the BRICS nations’ import baskets consist of capital
goods, indicating the process of large-scale industrialisation in these economies,
which is also reflected in their changing composition of commodity exports
(see table 5).
Promoting Cooperation for Economic Growth and Development
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TABLE 4
BRICS export composition (2013)
Country
Merchandise
exports
(US$ billion)
Share of
world total
exports
(%)
Share by commodity (%)
Share by destination (%)
Agricultural
products
Fuels and
mining
products
Manufactures
Brazil
242.2
1.3
37.4
24.2
35.1
Euro-
pean
Union
(19.7)
China
(19.0)
United
States
(10.3)
Argentina
(8.1)
Japan
(3.3)
Russia
523.3
2.8
5.7
71.4
19.3
Euro-
pean
Union
(45.8)
China
(6.8)
Japan
(3.7)
Kazakhstan
(3.3)
Belarus
(3.2)
India
313.2
1.7
15.0
25.5
59.4
Euro-
pean
Union
(16.8)
United
States
(12.5)
United
Arab
Emir-
ates
(10.1)
China (4.9)
Hong
Kong
China
(4.0)
China
2209.0
11.7
3.2
2.7
94.0
Hong
Kong
China
(17.4)
United
States
(16.7)
Euro-
pean
Union
(15.4)
Japan (6.8)
Republic
of Korea
(4.1)
South
Africa
96.0
0.5
11.6
38.1
42.0
Euro-
pean
Union
(17.7)
China
(12.7)
United
States
(7.2)
Japan (5.8)
Botswana
(4.8)
Source: WTO Statistics Database, available at <http://stat.wto.org/Home/WSDBHome.aspx?Language=E>.
TABLE 5
BRICS import composition (2013)
Country
Merchandise
imports
(US$ billion)
Share of
world total
imports (%)
Share by commodity (%)
Share by origin (%)
Agricultural
products
Fuels and
mining
products
Manufactures
Brazil
250.4
1.3
5.9
21.7
72.3
Euro-
pean
Union
(21.2)
China
(15.6)
United
States
(15.1)
Argentina
(6.9)
Nigeria
(4.0)
Russia
343.0
1.8
13.0
3.0
75.3
Euro-
pean
Union
(42.6)
China
(16.9)
United
States
(5.3)
Ukraine
(5.0)
Belarus
(4.4)
India
466.0
2.5
5.2
45.4
38.8
China
(11.1)
Euro-
pean
Union
(10.6)
Saudi
Arabia
(7.9)
United
Arab
Emirates
(7.1)
Switzer-
land (5.4)
China
1950.0
10.3
8.5
27.9
58.2
Euro-
pean
Union
(11.3)
Repub-
lic of
Korea
(9.4)
Japan
(8.3)
Hong
Kong,
China
(8.1)
Taiwan,
Province
of China
(8.0)
South
Africa
126.4
0.7
7.4
23.7
62.8
Euro-
pean
Union
(28.4)
China
(15.5)
Saudi
Arabia
(7.8)
United
States
(6.3)
India (5.2)
Source: WTO Statistics Database, available at <http://stat.wto.org/Home/WSDBHome.aspx?Language=E>.
BRICS Long-Term Strategy
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TABLE 6
Export linkages among BRICS
(US$ billions)
Exports from Russia
Brazil
China
India
South Africa
Advanced economies
Euro area
1990
-
-
-
-
-
-
2000
0.6
5.2
1.1
0.0
60.6
34.1
2010
1.7
19.8
5.4
0.0
208.5
138.8
2013
2.0
35.6
7.0
0.3
314.0
218.0
Exports from India
Brazil
China
Russia
South Africa
Advanced economies
Euro area
1990
0.0
0.0
-
0.0
11.1
3.0
2000
0.3
0.8
0.9
0.3
27.4
7.6
2010
3.7
17.5
1.4
3.6
100.0
32.4
2013
5.4
14.5
2.2
5.3
138.7
38.4
Exports from China
Brazil
India
Russia
South Africa
Advanced economies
Euro area
1990
0.1
0.2
-
0.0
52.0
5.1
2000
1.2
1.6
2.2
1.0
208.3
30.6
2010
24.5
40.1
30.0
10.8
1,107.0
234.1
2013
36.2
48.4
49.6
16.8
1,480.2
243.7
Exports from Brazil
China
India
Russia
South Africa
Advanced economies
Euro area
1990
0.4
0.2
-
0.2
22.9
8.1
2000
1.1
0.4
0.4
0.3
34.6
13.0
2010
30.8
3.5
4.2
1.3
83.0
36.7
2013
46.0
3.1
3.0
1.8
98.5
41.2
Exports from South
Africa
China
India
Russia
Brazil
Advanced economies
Euro area
1990
-
-
-
-
-
-
2000
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.2
15.7
6.2
2010
10.4
6.3
0.4
0.8
45.5
15.1
2013
11.8
3.0
0.4
0.7
40.4
13.9
Source: IMF, Directory of Table Statistics.
Obs.: - Not available.
Promoting Cooperation for Economic Growth and Development
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TABLE 7
Summary of external economic relations on BRICS
2000
2010
2012
2013
Total value of imports and exports of goods and commercial services (US$ million)
Brazil
137.0
477.7
586.5
607.6
Russia
175.7
762.8
1,034.9
779.9
India
125.9
826.1
1,017.6
N/A
China
530.2
3,264.1
4,264.8
N/A
South Africa
70.2
199.6
172.6
N/A
Value of imports of goods and commercial services (US$ million)
Brazil
72.4
244.2
304.1
326.3
Russia
61.1
321.0
444.5
344.7
India
65.1
450.3
571.5
N/A
China
250.7
1,520.6
2,016.5
N/A
South Africa
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Value of exports of goods and commercial services (US$ million)
Brazil
64.6
233.5
282.4
281.3
Russia
114.6
441.8
590.3
435.1
India
60.8
375.8
446.1
N/A
China
279.6
1,743.6
2,248.3
N/A
South Africa
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Inflow of foreign direct investment (US$ million)
Brazil
32.8
48.5
65.3
64.0
Russia
4.0
43.2
1
50.6
1
70.7
1
India
4.0
34.8
36.9
28.8
China
40.7
105.7
111.7
117.6
South Africa
888.0
1,228.0
4,839.0
N/A
Outflow of foreign direct investment (US$ million)
Brazil
2.3
-11.6
2.8
3.5
Russia
382.0
52.6
1
48.8
1
86.7
1
India
759.0
17.2
7.1
N/A
China
N/A
68.8
87.8
N/A
South Africa
-271.0
-450.0
-2.4
N/A
Source: BRICS Joint Statistical Publication (2014, p. 155).
Note:
1
Central Bank of Russia.