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CiviC BRiCS GReen PaPeR:
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B R I C S
ECONOMICS AND TRADE
The five BRICS countries account for 45 per cent of the population, 25 per cent
of the world’s GDP, 30 per cent of the land area and about a quarter of the world
trade (Table 3). At the same time, mutual trade amounts to only 10 per cent of the
total volume of their trade. Along with the growth of industrial production BRICS
share in environmental pollution grows as well.
In the 1960’s and 70’s Western scholars began formulating various forecasts
which have become in this day and age routine for both private and public orga-
nizations. Despite such efforts, these studies remain formulated in the context of
a Western viewpoint. It is high time to analyze the future from non-Western view
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point.
While in developed countries the business can receive funds from various
sources, including capital markets, private funding, relatively cheap loans, many
emerging economies companies often operate in a monopoly market thus creat-
ing serious obstacles to financing. The domestic commodity markets were open
as a result of previous multilateral agreements, but can we expect to enjoy a free
competition, if the financial situation provides to inequality? As a result, instead of
promoting a healthy and free competition, the business is forced to compete in an
environment with very unequal initial conditions. In this regard, we believe that it
is necessary to reduce the differences in financing terms and conditions between
the countries and improve access to capital among BRICS countries and between
BRICS and Western countries.
Trade is the life blood of economic growth offering solution to urgent social prob-
lems. Nowadays it is at least no less important to sell a product than to produce it.
Search for measures protecting countries from arising crises might be what unites
them where their economic policy is concerned. This situation poses new chal-
lenges that require special efforts from BRICS countries and its people. One of
the crucial areas of BRICS activity is to ensure “rules of the game” in social and
trade relationships as well as to elaborate those rules, with partners’ key interests
in mind.
The creation of locally integrated transnational markets supported with ethical
aims should become a general trend in global economic system development
which would serve as the basis for cooperation at political and expert levels.
BRICS Countries Overview
Brazil
is a leading Latin American economy, by far surpassing other countries
of the continent. It has large and well-developed agricultural, mining, manufactur-
ing, and service sectors, and a rapidly expanding middle class. Since 2003, Brazil
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B R I C S
has drastically improved macroeconomic stability. Despite being hit by the global
financial crisis in 2008 it still managed to become a net exporter and be the first
emerging economy to recover from the crisis, reaching a 7.5% annual GDP growth
(its highest in 25 years). Today, unemployment levels are at a historic low even in
the face of high inequality which in itself is in decline. Rising inflation led authorities
to take measures to cool the economy in 2011. Along with the ongoing global eco-
nomic crisis such actions led to an economy slowdown from 2011-14 and eroded
the country’s fiscal and current account balances.
Brazil’s GDP is comprised mainly of its service sector, which accounts for a total
of 70.4%, while the industry sector consisting of (textiles and shoes, chemicals,
mining products, aircrafts and other machinery and equipment) comprises 23.8%
while agriculture (coffee, soybeans, wheat, rice, corn, sugarcane, cocoa, citrus and
beef) sits at — 5.8%.
Russia
has undergone significant changes since the collapse of the Soviet
Union, moving from a centrally-planned economy towards a more market-based
and globally-integrated one with problematic structural reforms leading to a sig-
nificant disparity of wealth Property rights protection remains a weak spot and
the private sector remains subject to heavy state interference. Russia is one of
the world’s leading producers of oil and natural gas and is also a top exporter of
metals such as steel and primary aluminum. Russia’s excessive reliance on com
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modity exports makes it vulnerable to external shocks and price volatility. While
having 6-7% of GDP growth after the 1998 default, it was in the group of those hit
hardest by the global financial and economic crisis of 2008. Declining oil prices
and capital outflow, in combination with Western led sanctions imposed last year
have contributed to a noticeable slowdown in GDP growth rates. In late 2013, the
Russian Economic Development Ministry reduced its growth forecast through 2030
to an average of only 2.5% per year, down from its previous forecast of 4.0-4.2% .
Current projections indicate that GDO growth in 2015 could drop below zero. The
Russian ruble lost about half of its value in the second half of 2014 and remains
volatile Granting the fact that these policies poses an intentional character aimed
at securing a favorable export coefficient for importing countries. Russia’s GDP
consists of services (59.7%), industry (mining and extractive industries, machin
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ery and aeronautical complexes, defense industries, shipbuilding and road and rail
transportation etc — 36.6%), and lastly agriculture (4%).
India
is developing into an open-market economy with enduring autarchic poli-
cies. Economic liberalization measures began in the early 1990s and contributed
to the acceleration of economic growth with an average of 7% between the years
(1997 — 2011). India’s economy ranges from traditional village farming to wide
range of modern industries and services. Almost half of labor is busy in agriculture,
but services contribute to almost two-thirds of output with less than one-third of its
labor force. India has capitalized on its large educated English-speaking population
to become a major exporter of information technology services, business outsourc-
ing services, and software workers. Despite their 2011 slowdown India’s long-term
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growth is moderately positive due to a young population and corresponding low de-
pendency ratio, healthy savings and investment rates, as well as further integration
into the global economy. However, India has many challenges that it has yet to fully
address, including poverty, corruption, violence and discrimination against women,
an inefficient power generation and distribution system, ineffective enforcement of
intellectual property rights and many others.
Inbound capital flows, government policy reform, along with currency stabiliza
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tion prompted by the reduction of account deficits significantly improved India’s
global perception.
China
has moved from a closed, centrally planned system to a more market-
oriented economy with the introduction of various reforms. Since 2010 China has
became the world’s largest exporter. China has kept its currency tightly linked to
the USD despite US criticism and as a result, as of 2005 Chinese currency appre
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ciated. With certain modifications introduced with the 2008 financial crisis, China
moved back to policies of gradual appreciation in mid-2010. In 2014 the People’s
Bank of China (PBOC) doubled the daily trading band within which the RMB is per
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mitted to fluctuate. The restructuring of the economy and resulting efficiency gains
have contributed to a more than tenfold increase in GDP since 1978. Measured
on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis China became the world #1 economy in
2014. Despite such leaps of progression its per capita income remains rather low.
Today China faces a number of challenges in its economy: shadow banking,
high domestic savings and low domestic consumption; a need to offer higher-wage
opportunities for middle class families; corruption; environmental damage and so
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cial strife related to the economy’s rapid transformation; and a rapidly aging popula
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tion. Nevertheless, China remains the world’s leader in gross value agricultural out
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put (rice, wheat, corn, tea, etc…) with the similar situation characteristic of industry
(iron, steel, coal, machines, textiles, chemicals and fertilizers, consumer products
and food processing, etc...)
South Africa
is a middle-income, emerging market economy with an abundant
supply of natural resources but also well-developed financial, legal, communica
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tions, energy, and transport sectors. The global financial crisis reduction of com
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modity demand and prices led to GDP falling in 2009 but slowly recovering further
on, with 2014 seeing growth of lower than 2%. The country’s main challenges lay
in the areas of high unemployment (around 25%), poverty, and inequality, as well
as low education level and skill shortage, low global competitiveness and frequent
work stoppages. Government is focused on controlling inflation but various struc
-
tural adjustments are needed to provide for sustainable economic growth.
Bilateral cooperation
Russia and Brazil have strong ties between their respective ministries with re
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gards to industry development. In 2012 they signed two MoUs on economic mod
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ernization and in 2013 they signed a SME. Since 1997 there also exists the High-
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level Commission on cooperation headed by the Vice President of Government of
Russia and Vice-President of Brazil, as well as Intergovernmental Commission on
trade, economics, science and technology.
Russia comes only 18
th
as Brazil’s trade partner in terms of export and 21
st
in terms of import. Despite the small scale of bilateral trade, trade and economic
relations between the two countries have increased significantly. In 2004, both
countries agreed to increase annual turnover to 10 billion USD. The 2008 global
financial crisis caused a sharp decline which dropped the turnover to 8 billion USD.
Meanwhile, Brazil remains a key trading partner for Russia in Latin America with re
-
cent sanctions demonstrating more opportunities for bilateral trade. Current trade
between the two countries mainly encompasses agricultural products from Brazil
(meat, sugar, soybeans, tobacco, coffee) and chemical industry products from Rus
-
sia (diesel, fertilizers etc.). Many experts believe that high reciprocity between the
two countries, allows for further mutually beneficial cooperation.
Russia-China
economic cooperation is based on the Agreement between the
Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of China on trade and
economic relations between Russia and China, on March 5, 1992. In recent years
due to the high rates of economic growth, growth of cross boarder ties, and expan-
sion of investments, both countries experienced an increase in bilateral economic
trade. With this in mind, China is Russia #1 trading partner.
Although there are concerns of Russia acting as a resource base for Chinese
economic development (67.89% of exports to China are mineral fuel, oil and pe
-
troleum products), this imbalance rather lays within inconsistencies of the Russian
economic structure and should be dealt with by the RF internally. The main Chinese
import goods are machinery and equipment, but also products of the chemical in-
dustry. In a top twenty 2013 ranking Russia was ranked #10 for trade with China.
According to the Ministry of Economic Development of the PRC trade between
Russia and China exceeded 95 billion USD by 2014. It is believed the signing of
current proposed bilateral agreements on Economic cooperation (Eurasian Union
and Economic Silk Road Belt), bilateral trade is projected to exceed 100 billion
USD in 2015. Investment cooperation between Russia and China is coordinated
by the Permanent Working Group (PWG) on investment cooperation, the PWG on
Cooperation in the special economic zones, the PWG on inter-regional and cross-
border cooperation, the PWG on the joint development and use of forest resources.
Main priorities of China’s investment activities in Russia are the development of
mineral resources, forestry, energy, trade, construction, and communications.
Among the largest Russian-Chinese projects: Tianwan nuclear power plant lo-
cated in Lianyungang, Jiangsu, the Baltic Pearl project — Krasnoselsky, a district
of St. Petersburg; development of the Kyzyl-Tashtyg project on polymetallic ores
extraction in Tuva; the Amazarskogo timber development in the Baikal region; and
the construction of thermal power station in Yaroslavl region.
70
70
more information http://www.ved.gov.ru/exportcountries/cn/cn_ru_relations/cn_ru_trade/
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The legal basis for
Russia-India
bilateral cooperation is formed by the Agree-
ment on the Intergovernmental Commission on Trade-Economic and Scientific-
Technical Cooperation as well as on Trade and Economic Cooperation (signed in
Delhi 04.05.1992); The Treaty on Friendship and Cooperation (signed in New Delhi
28.01.1993); and also Agreement on the Promotion and Reciprocal Protection of
Investments (signed in Delhi 23.12.1994). Currently, there is work on the modern
-
ization of the agreement.
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According to the Federal Customs Service of Russia, in 2014, bilateral trade
amounted to 9.5 $ billion and decreased by 5.6% compared with 2013, while Rus
-
sian exports to India — $ 6,3 bln (9.2%), imports from India — 3.2 $ billion(+ 2.6%).
Main share of Russia’s export to India comes with machinery, equipment and ve
-
hicles — 36.7% (2013 — 54.5%), while the largest increase was recorded in pre
-
cious stones and metals and food products and agricultural raw materials. Main
exports from India consist of chemical products — 30.7% (35.0% in 2013 with the
largest increase recorded for food products and agricultural raw materials; pearls,
precious stones and metals.
Russia and South Africa
have been steadily increasing partnership in various
sectors under the coordination of the Mixed Intergovernmental Committee on Trade
and Economic Cooperation. In September 2013 it signed an intergovernmental
agreement on the establishment of the Johannesburg Russian trade mission.
In 2013 bilateral trade amounted to only 1,07 billion USD ( despite an 11.1%
increase in the prior year The main share of supply in South Africa is accounted
for by food and agricultural raw materials (46.4%), mineral products (19.4%) and
chemical products (18.9%). The structure of imports from South Africa is dominat
-
ed by food products and agricultural (40.9%), machinery, equipment and vehicles
(28.4%), mineral products (19.9%).
A promising area of economic and scientific-technical partnership is nuclear and
non-nuclear energy In accordance with the 2004 agreement on the peaceful use
of nuclear energy, all sides are discussing joint efforts for exploration and devel-
opment of uranium deposits for the management of a safe nuclear fuel cycle. .
Nuclear research, medical technology and supercomputers are intended to be an
area of cooperation within the framework of the Joint Commission on Scientific
and Technological Cooperation. Another such area of cooperation is space : in
September 2009 and November 2013 South African satellites were launched using
Russian carriers rockets; in March 2013 the Federal Space Agency and the South
African Space Agency signed a cooperation agreement in the field of astrophysical
research
72
.
China
also comes as #1
Brazil
partner on trade since 2009, accounting for
18 percent of the country’s foreign trade. Despite a slight decrease, bilateral trade
in 2014 was $78 billion, according to the Brazilian authorities. China had invested
71
Full information http://www.ved.gov.ru/exportcountries/in/in_ru_relations/in_ru_trade/
72
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