Файл: Общая характеристика оперативно-розыскных мероприятий (Характеристика оперативно розыскных мероприятий).pdf

A quantitative risk assessment is most studied approach is seen as assessment of changes in the cost and duration of the project due to the impact on them of risk factors, by simulation of various negative consequences of the offensive situations.

However, the approach of Finnish experts contains a methodology for quantifying the degree of negative impact on the earnings situation of the project, which is based on subjective judgments about the likelihood of risky situations and the amount of loss in the event of their occurrence.

Currently, there are four basic ways of handling risk: acceptance, transfer, mitigation, avoidance. The differences appear as part of specific measures, which include the main ways, and there is no a clear classification of methods of processing risks.

Introduction. Financial Management always puts the receipt of income depending on the risk. Risk and income are two interrelated and interdependent financial categories.

Under the risk is the possible danger of losses arising from the specificity of certain natural phenomena and human activities.

For the financial manager risk - is the likelihood of an unfavorable outcome. Various investment projects have varying degrees of risk, the most profitable option of investing can be so risky, that, as they say, "the game is not worth the candle."

In the context of the need for risk analysis of companies and the increased volatility in the market environment to study methods and risk management mechanisms is shown one of the important tasks of the Russian economy.

The purpose of the essay - to investigate the prospects for the development of risk management.

Prospects for the development of risk management theory and practice.

Risk as an economic category is a possibility of the event that may entail three economic result: negative (loss, damage, loss); null; positive (gain, gain, gain) [1, p. 39].

Risk - this action to be taken in the hope of a happy outcome on a "lucky - unlucky". Of course, the risk can be avoided that simply avoid activities associated with risk. However, for the entrepreneur, according B.C.Stupakova, GS Tokarenko, avoid risk often constitute a waiver of possible profit [4, p. 49].

Risk can be controlled, ie, use a variety of measures to a certain extent, to predict the risk events and take action to reduce risks. The effectiveness of the risk management organization is largely determined by the risk classification.

risk situation - a situation in which the probability of occurrence of the events can be defined, ie in this case, there is an opportunity to objectively assess the likelihood of events that may have an impact on the technical and economic indicators of production.

The main sources of risk are:

1) the unpredictability, spontaneity of natural processes and phenomena;

2) an accident of social processes;

3) the presence of the opposing trends clash of conflicting interests in market conditions;

4) the unpredictable nature of scientific and technological progress.

The essence of risk, as well as any economic category, is shown in its functions. In this paper, MG Lapusta, LG Sharshukovoy "Risks in business" the following risk features are: innovation, regulatory, protective and analysis [2, p. 45].

Innovative risk function performs a stimulating search of unconventional ways of solving problems faced by the entrepreneur. In the international business practice has accumulated positive experience of innovative risk management. Most firms, companies succeed and become competitive through innovative economic activities related to the risk.

The regulatory function is inconsistent and appears in two forms: the destructive and creative.

entrepreneur risk, as a rule, is focused on obtaining significant results in unconventional ways. Thereby, it allows you to overcome the conservatism, dogmatism, conservatism, psychological barriers to promising innovations.

The creative form of regulatory risk function is manifested in the fact that the ability to take risks - one of the ways to the success of the enterprise.

However, the risk can be a manifestation of workers' discontent, if the decision is made unnecessarily. In this case it acts as a risk factor destabilizing.

Protective risk function is manifested in the fact that if the risk for the entrepreneur - a natural state, the normal should be tolerant attitude to failure.

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apply various techniques to reduce the level of risk. The most common are:

1. diversification;

2. The acquisition of additional information on selecting and results;

3. limitation;

4. The self-insurance;

5. insurance;

The risk of the economy is defined as the probability (threat) now losing some of their resources, revenue, or the appearance of additional costs resulting from the implementation of specific operational and financial performance [3, p. 33].

In the West, even in the relatively stable economic conditions, economic entities is seriously concerned with risk management. At the same time in the Russian economy, where factors of economic instability and without complicating effective management of enterprises, problems of analysis and management of complex risks that arise in the course of their economic activity, given the apparent lack of attention. Until recently, such a situation prevailed not only in the enterprises of the real sector of the economy, but also in financial and credit institutions. According to E. Stanislavchik, close attention to the issue of risk management has been given only after the financial crisis, which clearly outlined the acuteness of this problem in Russia [3, p. 34].

In the real economy, which is characterized by long-term projects, lack of investment, low turnover, and return on assets, the relatively low level of economic literacy of administrative staff, the situation is changing slowly. This leads to inefficient management of financial flows, the lack of forecasting the results of financial and economic activity, an erroneous strategic planning of enterprise development.

Risk management methods are very diverse. From the current practice at the moment can be seen quite clearly that the Russian experts, on the one hand, and Western researchers - on the other hand, have developed is quite clear preferences for methods of risk management. The presence of such preferences is primarily due to the nature of the economic development of the state and, as a consequence, considered risk groups. However, the development of economic relations in Russia contributes to the spread of Western experience, resulting in a convergence of Russian and Western approaches to the management and investigation of risks.

The choice of the optimal policy aimed at reducing the risk, is solved in the framework of microeconomic theory. The corresponding result reads: optimal risk management policy should be such that the marginal cost of implementation of this policy consistent with the marginal utility, delivered its application [2]. However, due to significant information requirements this principle difficult to implement in practice. In fact, it takes a more simple criteria such as minimum cost of risk reduction measures to an acceptable level.

In specific cases, the choice of risk reduction resources depends on his predictions. Thus, well-known, common risks can be reduced with the help of specially developed preventive measures. For example, the risk of losing part of the company's assets as a result of theft can be reduced by setting the alarm in warehouses, to improve the current system of accounting and control the storage and use of wealth. Foreseeable, but poorly controlled risks can be reduced through diversification of production and use of a reserve supply of system resources.

Each of these risk-reduction tool has both some advantages and disadvantages, so generally use a combination of these instruments "suppression" of risks.

The development of risk management science largely viewed from the perspective of the risks of financial institutions in a relatively stable economic environment. The need to consider the risks of industrial enterprises in the unstable political, economic and social conditions require adjustments to the current principles of risk management and further justification effectiveness of the risk analysis methods [4, p. 80].

Currently, there are two theory approach to determining the risk. In the first approach (Lapusta MG, Sharshukova LG) are based on the outcome of the event, and the risk is considered as an opportunity or a threat of rejection of the results of specific decisions or actions of the expected [2, p. 112]. The second approach (Stanislavchik E.) considered himself the risk of the phenomenon as an action aimed at achieving specific goals related to the elements of danger, threat of loss or failure [3, p. 33].

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The main objective of risk management systems in any field is the most effective use of science and the limited funds available to make the results of the most predictable (that is, as far as possible to reduce uncertainty about the results of the data).

Analyzing the risk structure, it is possible to identify the main ways to change (ie. E. Control) due to the impact on the individual elements of risk. Removing at least one basic element entails the risk of extinction. By reducing the probability of a transition between the elements or the severity of the consequences, you can reduce the risk.

In fact, studies show B.C.Stupakova and GS Tokarenko, one of the main causes of ineffective risk management is the lack of clear and precise methodological foundations of this process. A study cited in the literature of the principles of risk management haphazard and piecemeal, and individual attempts to systematize the inherent set of controversial issues [4, p. 9].

All of the above leads to the conclusion that in order to effectively analyze all the variety of risks in the enterprise need to apply a set of methods, which, in turn, confirms the relevance of developing an integrated risk management framework.

In today's economic conditions, characterized by political, economic and social instability that exists in the enterprise management system must include a mechanism for risk management.

The first stage of the formation mechanism of risk management at the company is to provide risk management services. At the present stage of development of the Russian economy the purpose of this service is to minimize losses by monitoring the activity of the enterprise, analysis of all the factors riskoobrazuyuschih, make recommendations to mitigate risks and control over their implementation. It is important to determine the place of service in the organizational structure of the enterprise, to define the rights and responsibilities of its personnel and to inform employees about the service functions and the nature of its activity [4, p. 55].

The final stage of the development program is to develop a set of measures to reduce risks with an indication of the intended effect of their implementation, implementation deadlines, sources of funding and the persons responsible for the implementation of this program. The program must be approved by management and taken into account in the financial and operational planning [5, p. 116].

In the process of implementation of the program of risk management services professionals need to analyze the effectiveness of the decisions taken and, where necessary to ensure the adjustment of goals and means to minimize the risks. It is recommended to accumulate all the information about errors and shortcomings of the program of development that emerged in the course of its implementation. This approach will allow for the development of subsequent programs of measures to reduce risks to a level of quality using the new acquired knowledge about the risk [6].

In conclusion, we emphasize that the mechanism of enterprise risk management in the current economic conditions should have a clear hierarchical structure with the need to adjust it according to the results of the program of measures to reduce risks and taking into account the varying impacts.

The analysis of works of domestic and foreign research theory and risk minimization practices, current status and trends of the national economy, the problems and peculiarities of the activity of the real sector enterprises proves the relevance and timeliness of the development of enterprise risk management mechanism in the current economic conditions and leads to the conclusion about the necessity of its implementation in practice the activities of financial and economic departments of economic entities.

Conclusion. The aim of the work was achieved, it was determined the risk is an integral part of business. The risk is estimated as the probability of losses arising from or additional costs, or reduce the amount of output against the expected. Completely eliminate the risk within the market system will never succeed.

Risk management in the evaluation and predictive calculation requires knowledge of the classification of types of risk that vary by time factors, the area of ​​origin, taking into account the nature. In carrying out entrepreneurial activity is important not to avoid risk, and try to reduce it, to relate to each other possible losses and profits. To this end, it is important to be able to calculate the probability of high-risk operations as well as potential losses from risk.

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For risk prediction used a variety of methods, combined in the following groups: statistical methods; feasibility study costs; analytical; analogy method; method of expert evaluations and expert systems. What unites these methods is that they operate on the specific risk of deterministic values ​​and calculations do not take into account the random component of the evolution of the economic situation.

To solve the problem of the formation of the resource base of the bank is necessary to intensify efforts to increase the number of contributors. Therefore, banks need to develop competent deposit policy, which is based on the attraction of financial resources put from other sources and maintaining the balance of liabilities to assets on terms, volumes and interest rates.

Accounting for financial risks to become an integral part of the production process, often affecting the very direction of its development. The use of financial instruments when determining the right risks, avoids possible negative consequences in volatile market conditions.

Список использованных источников

Описание нормативно-правовых актов органов законодательной исполнительной власти

1. Конституция Российской Федерации (принята всенародным голосованием 12.12.1993) (с учетом поправок, внесенных Законами РФ о поправках к Конституции РФ от 30.12.2008 N 6-ФКЗ, от 30.12.2008 N 7-ФКЗ, от 05.02.2014 N 2-ФКЗ, от 21.07.2014 N 11-ФКЗ)
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Introduction. Enterprise Risk Management is based on the concept of acceptable risk, postulates the possibility of a rational influence on the risk level, bringing and keeping this level within acceptable limits. The risk is an objective reality projects involving all phases and stages of its development and implementation.

In the context of the need for modernization of industrial enterprises, the production of non-competitive products and the increased volatility in the market environment to study methods and tools for risk management of investment projects of industrial enterprises, adequate requirements of modern market economy is one of the important tasks of the Russian economy.

Purpose of the article - to explore the history of the development of risk management.

The history of the development of risk management. The word "risk" has ancient roots - translated from the Old Italian «risicare» means "dare". The history of the concept of "risk" is largely associated with the relationship of man to the future.

In ancient Greece mythological worldview was based on the fact that the future is completely predetermined by the will and desire of the gods, that is, It does not depend on the behavior of the person.

The emergence of world religions and especially Christianity, has led to what the future has become ambiguous. There was an understanding that the possibility of "different" future in this life and after death depends on human behavior. Therefore, there was responsibility for the consequences of their actions [3, p. 16].

In the Middle Ages there was the realization that the future depends not only on God. One of those who first raised the issue, was an Italian monk, professor of mathematics credited Luke, who lived in the XV century. In the Renaissance, it began a serious study of the problems associated with risk. Thanks to the development of gambling and especially dice the opportunity to predict the future. Exploring gambling, French mathematician and philosopher Blaise Pascal and inventor in 1654 appealed to the Fermat math. The cooperation was established the theory of probability. It was a huge jump in philosophical and practical, for the first time allowed to make quantitative predictions of the future. Since then, forecasting tools, such as divination, sacrifice and blissful delirium began to retreat into the past.

At the beginning of the XVIII century. German mathematician G. Leibniz put forward the idea, and Ya.Bernulli Swiss mathematician (1654-1705) proved the law of large numbers and developed a statistical procedure. Since 1725, when the first government of England were used mortality tables, this tool has spread rapidly throughout the world.

In 1730 the French mathematician A. Moivre introduced the concept of the structure of a normal distribution and a measure of risk - standard deviation. In 1738 Bernoulli determined the expected utility, which ultimately rests the modern theory of portfolio investments. Since 1763, thanks to Bayes' theorem (Theorem hypotheses), the world learned how to influence the decision-making level of awareness about the management of the facility.

The discovery of the basic laws and the development of almost all modern risk management tools related to XVII-XVIII centuries.

The industrial revolution, social upheaval, the expansion of human activities have significantly increased the scope of manifestation of risk and simultaneously formed to the future as a part of the projected world. Note, in particular, the development of the theory of statistical regression English mathematician F.Galtonom in 1886

Risk is inherent in any area of ​​human activity that is associated with a variety of conditions and factors affecting the outcome (positive or negative) decisions taken by the people. The risk of shortfall in the expected results began to manifest itself particularly when the universality of commodity-money relations, competition, economic actors. Sufficiently broad and constructive interpretation of the risk at the same time began to be used in insurance, as this area of ​​business is directly related to the existence and manifestation of various forms of risk. It is because insurance is an understanding of risk as an economic category.

With the emergence and development of a market economy, there are various theories of risk. One of the first challenges of economic risks considered American economist A. Marshall, whose works marked the beginning of the neoclassical theory of risk. American economist John. M. Keynes introduced to science the notion of "risk appetite", describing the investment and business risks, offered one of the first classifications of risk.

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