ВУЗ: Не указан
Категория: Не указан
Дисциплина: Не указана
Добавлен: 19.10.2020
Просмотров: 2025
Скачиваний: 1
BRICS Long-Term Strategy
54
|
As a result of the increasing demands for reforms following the financial
crisis, the 14
th
General Review of Quotas was concluded in December 2010.
This included proposals for wide-ranging reforms to reflect the increasing impor-
tance of emerging economies that were further approved by other G20 finance
ministers and central bank governors at a meeting in 2010 in Gyeongju, Korea
(IMF, 2010b). Despite proposals from multiple stakeholders, ratification by the
US Congress is a significant hurdle in the actual implementation of reforms.
5
As of October 2014, the USA has the majority voting share of 17.69 per cent at the
IMF and 16.07 per cent at the World Bank. To be fully implemented, the reform
package will require approval by three fifths of the members, representing 85 per
cent of the total voting power. The 85 per cent supermajority rule implies that
the US must be a member of any winning majority, assuring it a unilateral veto.
In January 2014, the US Congress failed to ratify the IMF reforms, undermining
the implicit understanding between the G20 leaders. However, even if the reforms
are passed, the US voting share will still be 16.5 per cent and will not eliminate
this systemic dependence.
TABLE 4
Voting shares at the IMF before and after implementation of reforms agreed in 2008
and 2010
As of March 2011
Post-2008 reform
Post-2010 reform
Advanced economies
59.5
57.9
55.2
Major advanced economies (G7)
44.3
43.0
41.2
United States
16.7
16.7
16.5
Other
27.6
26.3
24.7
Other advanced economies
15.2
14.9
14.0
Emerging market and developing countries
40.5
42.1
44.8
Developing countries
32.9
34.5
37.1
Africa
5.9
6.2
5.7
Asia
11.6
12.8
16.1
Middle East, Malta and Turkey
7.6
7.3
6.8
Western Hemisphere
7.8
8.2
8.4
Transition economies
7.6
7.6
7.7
Total
100
100
100
Source: IMF, IMF Members’ Quotas and Voting Power, and IMF Board of Governors, 16 Dec. 2014.
5. In the 2014 spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, finance ministers and central bank governors
of the G20
indicated that if the 2010 reforms are not ratified by year-end, they will move forward with the reforms without the USA.
Political and Economic Governance
|
55
Although the capital structure and voting rights have been amended at both the
World Bank and the IMF, voting power is still skewed towards advanced economies.
BRICS countries, accounting for more than a fifth of global output, have
a mere 10.3 per cent share of the total allocated quota. European Union (EU)
countries, by contrast, are allocated 32 per cent as against 21 per cent of output
(The Economist, 2011). In the World Bank, high-income, non-borrowing countries
hold more than 60 per cent of the total voting power.
TABLE 5
Voting shares of selected countries at the IMF and IBRD, as of 24 Oct. 2014
Voting Share (%)
IBRD
IMF
United States
16.07
17.69
Japan
8.02
6.56
Germany
4.50
6.12
France
4.01
4.51
United Kingdom
4.01
4.51
BRICS
13.46
11.51
Source: IMF, World Bank.
The proposed reforms will lead to a realignment of voting shares – more than 6
per cent of quota shares will shift to dynamic emerging and developing economies,
and the BRICS (except South Africa) will be among the 10 largest shareholders.
Under the IMF Articles of Agreement, each of the five members with the
largest quotas appoints an Executive Director, and the remaining members elect
other Executive Board members. Presently, the IMF Executive Board consists of
24 Executive Directors presided over by the Managing Director.
The World Bank follows a similar governance structure. For instance, under
the IBRD Articles of Agreement, each of the five members with the largest number
of shares appoints an Executive Director, and the remaining members elect the
other Executive Directors. Presently, the IBRD Board of Directors consists of
25 Executive Directors presided over by the President.
The inequitable distribution of voting power is reflected in the number of
countries represented by each Executive Director. Large shareholding member
nations have their own representative on the Executive Board, whereas many
smaller members are grouped into constituencies representing four or more
countries. For instance, 45 countries in sub-Saharan Africa are grouped into just
two constituencies and represented by only two Executive Directors.
BRICS Long-Term Strategy
56
|
Moreover, all past Presidents of the World Bank have been US citizens, while
the past Managing Directors of the IMF have all been Europeans. This sort of
representational inequity only serves to detract from the efficacy of the Bretton
Woods Institutions. The 2010 reforms seek to redesign the Executive Board by
electing members instead of appointing them. Moreover, advanced European
countries should reduce their combined board representation by two chairs.
2.2.3 Enabling efficient resource allocation and transparent decision-making
The IBRD and the IDA collectively loaned about USD 40 billion in 2013-14.
Out of this, total spending on infrastructure including energy, transportation, water,
sanitation and health amounted to USD 13.8 billion (World Bank, 2014). However,
this amount is grossly inadequate when seen in the context of the development
needs of emerging and developing economies. It is estimated that infrastructure
requirement in BRICS countries are well over of USD 1 trillion.
In addition to quota reserves, the IMF has a supplemental fund of resources
called the New Arrangements to Borrow (NAB) – a temporary credit arrangement
between the IMF and 38 member countries – worth approximately USD 588 billion.
On top of this, in 2012, as economic and financial conditions worsened in
Europe, 38 countries committed to IMF resources further by bilateral borrowing
agreements, totalling USD 461 billion, of which 32 are effective as of August
2014, totalling USD 425 billion. The IMF has had to resort to the NAB on
multiple occasions in the recent past. This has demonstrated the inadequacy of
the quota reserves; especially on occasions when a collective response was required
(the proposed 2010 reforms aim to double the quota reserves to about USD 750
billion). Before the 2012 G20 Summit in Los Cabos, BRICS leaders collectively
pledged USD 75 billion to the IMF’s bailout fund for the Eurozone debt crisis
(The Times of India, 2012).
There is also a crucial need for directing the resources of the Bretton Woods
Institutions towards the sectors that can directly address the attendant challenges
of emerging and developing economies. The World Bank declared that it will
avoid funding towards the coal sector in 2013.
6
This is in direct conflict with the
development priorities of many emerging and developing economies. For instance,
coal-fired thermal power accounts for 60 per cent of India’s total power generation,
which makes it systemically important for economic growth (Central Electricity
Authority, India).
6. “The WBG will provide financial support for greenfield coal power generation projects only in rare circumstances.
Considerations such as meeting basic energy needs in countries with no feasible alternatives to coal and a lack of
financing for coal power would define such rare cases” (World Bank, 2013).
Political and Economic Governance
|
57
Similarly, the IMF has a mandate to ensure global financial stability. However,
when providing funds during crises, the strict conditionalities it often imposes can have
adverse impacts on long-term growth. Countries such as Indonesia, Republic of Korea
and Thailand were forced to adopt strict structural adjustment policies in exchange for
IMF bailouts during the East Asian crisis in 1997. More recently, the G77 and China
have called for more flexible financial responses to the needs of member countries
without the imposition of pro-cyclical conditionalities (Group of 77 and China, 2010).
2.3 The New BRICS Development Bank
At the 2014 BRICS Summit at Fortaleza, the BRICS countries signed an agreement
on establishing a New Development Bank (NDB), “with the purpose of mobilizing
resources for infrastructure and sustainable development projects in BRICS and
other emerging and developing economies” (BRICS, 2014).
Infrastructure financing still remains a significant hurdle in the development
of many emerging and developing economies and is a clear priority for members
of BRICS. For instance, within BRICS the averages of key development indicators
such as per capita electricity consumption (3502 kwh), fixed broadband internet
subscribers (8.9 per cent), total rail lines (53,065 km) and paved roads (51 per cent)
compare poorly with developed countries.
The lack of a regular supply of infrastructure such as power and running
water impedes economic growth. In fact, infrastructure deficits have proved to be a
primary constraint for businesses in emerging and developing economies – between
3 and 10 per cent of total sales were lost to electricity outages in developing countries
in the latest available year of the 1994-2004 period (MDB Working Group on
Infrastructure, 2011). The reliability of infrastructure and the maintenance of
existing infrastructure is also a challenge that BRICS countries collectively face –
and perhaps there is room for the NDB’s financing mandate to cover this core
development concern.
While infrastructure development is a widely acknowledged ‘hard development’
challenge within BRICS, the key challenges within ‘sustainable development’ are
more nuanced and context specific. Perhaps distinctly divergent from the position
taken by advanced economies, BRICS countries have repeatedly stressed poverty
reduction and inclusive growth as the prerequisite to sustainable development.
Indeed, a common position within these economies has been to “take eradicating
poverty and promoting development as the centre-piece of the Development Agenda
beyond 2015” (People’s Republic of China, 2013), as well as collectively “addressing
the challenges of poverty and inequality” (BRICS, 2014). This is not surprising,
as human development indicators within BRICS countries continue to lag behind
developed economies. Chapter 3 provides closer discussion of social indicators.
BRICS Long-Term Strategy
58
|
To address the above-mentioned development challenges, it is important to
make economic growth a priority task, and advance economic, social and environ-
mental development in a comprehensive and coordinated manner. In this context,
the NDB’s sustainable development linked financing mandate should not only
focus on environmental sustainable projects such as environmental protection and
improvement, renewable energy, circulator economy, but also focus on supportive
project of reducing inequality, improving inclusion and enhancing social and
human development. Given the current state of infrastructure and the overarching
objective of sustainable development, capacity building in the relevant sectors
should be the utmost priority of the NDB. According to estimates by the MDB
Working Group on Infrastructure,
7
the weighted average of infrastructure invest-
ment will need to be roughly 7 per cent of the respective country GDPs (table 6).
This figure, however, is likely to be much higher for BRICS countries.
TABLE 6
Projected infrastructure investment, percentage of GDP
Regions
Need (average annual 2010-2020)
Estimated actual spending
USD billion, 2005 constant
% of projected GDP
East Asia and Pacific
408
5.5
207
Central Asia
13
5.2
NA
Eastern Europe
NA
NA
NA
Latin America and the
Caribbean
81
2.6
44
Middle East and North Africa
75–100
10.0
44
South Asia
191
10.8
46
Sub-Saharan Africa
93
9.8
45
Weighted Average
-
7.2
-
Source: MDB Working Group on Infrastructure, 2011. Supporting infrastructure in developing countries, submission to the G20.
According to more conservative estimates by the McKinsey Global Institute
(2013), the value of infrastructure stock – the sum total of fixed assets of
an economy – averages around 70 per cent of the GDP in most economies.
To maintain this ratio, developing regions will need to allocate 5.6 per cent of
GDP towards infrastructure investment up to 2030. Specifically, BRICS countries
require an average infrastructure investment totalling 5.5 per cent of their respective
GDP, while the figure for the USA stands at 3.6 per cent and for Japan 2.6
per cent (figure 7). Notably, within BRICS only China’s infrastructure investment
exceeds its total needs.
7. Comprising the African Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, European Investment Bank, Inter-American
Development Bank, Islamic Development Bank and the World Bank Group.